By: Nosmot Gbadamosi,Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief
South Africa has issued a notably guarded response to the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, urging “dialogue” and a “peaceful resolution” to the conflict.
Pretoria’s muted statement—in contrast with its outright condemnation of Israel’s strikes on Iran earlier this month—underscores the diplomatic challenges that it faces as it navigates an increasingly unpredictable administration in Washington.
This balancing act may only become more complicated if an Israel-Iran cease-fire fails to hold.
In recent years, Pretoria has deepened its ties with Tehran. South Africa has allowed Iranian warships to dock in Cape Town and advocated for Iran’s membership in BRICS during the bloc’s 2023 summit in Johannesburg.
In March, Nomvula Mokonyane, the first deputy secretary-general of the leading African National Congress (ANC) party, hosted the Iranian ambassador to South Africa at the party’s headquarters, saying that “we can’t hide our friends.”
This relationship has drawn U.S. President Donald Trump’s ire. In a Feb. 7 executive order cutting financial aid to South Africa, Trump cited—among other grievances—the country’s reinvigorated “relations with Iran to develop commercial, military, and nuclear arrangements.” (The ANC has consistently supported Iran’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.)
Meanwhile, South Africa’s relations with Israel have long been strained. Although the pair forged close ties in the apartheid era, Pretoria has staunchly supported the Palestinian cause since the end of white minority rule in South Africa. In 2023, it brought a case accusing Israel of genocide to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
That said, Pretoria is unlikely to provide Tehran with unalloyed support. “I don’t think it’s in anyone’s interests in South Africa for them to come out fully on the side of the Iranians and undermine the small efforts that have been done so far in trying to rebuild its relationship with the United States,” said Christopher Vandome, a senior research fellow at Chatham House.
Pretoria is seeking a favorable economic deal with Washington, which is one of its top trading partners. South Africa—the continent’s largest exporter to the United States—has long relied on Washington’s African Growth and Opportunity Act, a decades-old preferential trade arrangement that is set to expire in September. Around 125,000 jobs in the country’s car industry depend on exports to the United States.
The clock is ticking on Pretoria’s chances of appeasing Washington. On July 9, Trump’s planned 30 percent tariff on South African imports is set to come into effect.
Trump has also threatened to boycott the November G-20 summit in South Africa—the first time that it will be held on the continent.
According to Vandome, South Africa’s priority is to deliver on the G-20 and ensure Trump’s attendance, “rather than trying to seek increased isolation by aligning with Iran.”
Pretoria has been hoping to strike a trade deal with Washington on the sidelines of the U.S.-Africa Business Summit in Angola, which concludes today, but major deals are unlikely with senior U.S. officials’ attention focused on the Middle East.
Still, despite economic pressure, South Africa is unlikely to fully capitulate to Trump, especially when it comes to dropping its genocide case against Israel at the ICJ. “Despite huge criticism of South African foreign policy within South Africa, this is one area where actually there has been support for the ANC government,” Vandome said.
Meanwhile, to counter the effects of a broader U.S. withdrawal from Africa, South Africa has bolstered ties with China and Europe. Ahead of the U.S.-Africa summit, China offered tariff-free trade to all African nations—apart from Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan’s sovereignty.
In March, the European Union announced a $5.1 billion investment into green energy and vaccine production in South Africa at a joint summit in Cape Town.
The announcement came shortly after Washington cut funding to foreign aid, threatening vital HIV/AIDS research and treatment in South Africa.
“The EU and other partners, including the U.K., Canada, [and] Australia, will be trying to see where they can fill the gap on the U.S. retreat. They are conscious that they don’t want South Africa to overly rely on China,” Vandome said.
Ultimately, South Africa must navigate its shifting allegiances under a coalition government that includes the pro-business Democratic Alliance party.
The challenge for the ANC now will be how it balances national economic interests alongside its historical nonalignment and efforts to project itself as a champion of the global south and an opponent of Western hegemony.
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FOREIGN POLICYS AFRICA BRIEF
Cover Photo: Credit ,Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images
Demonstrators wave Iranian flags as they gather in front of the U.S. Consulate during a protest against the Israel-Iran conflict and to express solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, seen in Johannesburg on June 21.
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